9th Sep. AFC U23 Asian Cup---Philippines U23 VS Nepal U23 Prediction
AFC U23 Asian Cup - Philippines U23 VS Nepal U23
Match Time:09-09-2025 21:00 Tuesday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Team Reviews
Philippines U23 are entering this AFC U23 Asian Cup Qualifier Group K match at Republican Central Stadium in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, with a challenging start, sitting last in the group after a 2-1 loss to Syria U23 on September 3, 2025. Their recent form is mixed, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, scoring six goals and conceding nine, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. On neutral or away pitches, they’ve struggled, losing their last two, including a 4-0 defeat to Thailand U23 in 2023. Coach Norman Fegidero’s 4-4-2 relies on Jarvey Gayoso’s finishing (one goal in qualifiers) and Adrian Ugelvik’s defensive work. No major injuries are reported, but the Philippines will need to stay compact and rely on counters to compete against Nepal, aiming to leverage their slight edge in attacking output to secure points.
Nepal U23 are also struggling, ranked third in Group K after a 4-0 loss to Tajikistan U23 on September 3, 2025. Their recent form shows one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five, scoring four goals and conceding 10, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. On neutral or away pitches, they’ve been winless in their last three, including a 6-0 loss to Tajikistan in 2021 qualifiers. Coach Bal Gopal Maharjan’s 4-4-2 depends on Manish Dangi’s pace and goalkeeper Abhishek Baral’s shot-stopping. No major injuries are noted, but Nepal will need to tighten their defense and capitalize on rare chances to challenge the Philippines, facing a tough test after their heavy defeat.
Head to Head
There’s no recent head-to-head data between Philippines U23 and Nepal U23 in competitive matches, making this a fresh encounter, per historical data. Without prior meetings, we rely on form and context. The Philippines’ slightly better attacking output (1.2 goals per game vs. Nepal’s 0.8) and experience against stronger sides give them a marginal edge. Matches involving the Philippines average 3.0 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of their recent games, while Nepal’s games average 3.2 goals, suggesting a potentially open contest. Nepal’s defensive struggles (2.0 goals conceded per game) could be a deciding factor against the Philippines’ counter-attacking threat.
Prediction
The Philippines U23’s slightly better form and attacking edge make them favorites in this low-stakes clash between two struggling sides, but Nepal’s resilience could keep it close. I predict a 2-1 win for the Philippines, with Gayoso likely scoring and Nepal possibly nicking a goal through Dangi on a counter. The Philippines’ win probability is around 60%, reflecting their marginally better output and Nepal’s defensive woes. Expect the Philippines to edge possession (around 52%) and corners (6-8 projected), with Nepal’s counters posing a moderate threat. The game should see both teams trading chances, with the Philippines exploiting Nepal’s leaky defense for a narrow victory.
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