4th Sep. FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA)---Bulgaria VS Spain Prediction
FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA) - Bulgaria VS Spain
Match Time:05-09-2025 02:45 Friday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Team Reviews
Bulgaria are kicking off their FIFA World Cup 2026 UEFA Qualifier Group E campaign at Vasil Levski National Stadium in Sofia with a tough challenge ahead. Sitting 62nd in the FIFA rankings, their recent form is mixed, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, scoring six goals and conceding five, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. At home, they’ve been inconsistent, winning just one of their last four competitive matches, including a 4-0 loss to Greece in a June 2025 friendly. Coach Ilian Iliev’s 5-4-1 setup aims to neutralize Spain’s attack, with Kiril Despodov (two goals in 2025) leading the line and Dimitar Mitov likely in goal. No major injuries are reported, but Bulgaria will rely on a compact defense and passionate home crowd to frustrate Spain and target a rare upset.
Spain, ranked 3rd globally, are favorites in Group E after a strong UEFA Nations League campaign, though they lost 5-3 on penalties to Portugal in the June 2025 final. Their recent form shows three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five, scoring 10 goals and conceding seven, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Away from home, they’re formidable, unbeaten in their last three road games, including a 5-4 thriller over France. Coach Luis de la Fuente’s 4-3-3 leverages Álvaro Morata’s finishing (two goals in qualifiers) and Pedri’s creativity, despite injuries to Gavi, Fabian Ruiz, and Yeremy Pino. Aleix Garcia and Jorge de Frutos are likely replacements. Spain will aim to dominate possession and exploit Bulgaria’s defense, which has conceded 2.25 goals per game in recent outings.
Head to Head
Spain dominate the historical record against Bulgaria, winning four of their last five meetings since 1996, with one draw. Their most recent clash was a 1-0 Spain friendly win in 2002, and their last competitive meeting saw Spain thrash Bulgaria 6-1 at the 1998 World Cup. In Sofia, Bulgaria managed a 1-1 draw in a 1996 Euro qualifier, with Hristo Stoichkov scoring, but Spain have won their last two visits. Matches average 3.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of encounters, per historical data. Spain’s 13-0 friendly win in 1933 remains their biggest victory in this fixture. Bulgaria’s defensive setup may keep it closer, but Spain’s historical edge gives them confidence.
Prediction
Spain’s superior quality, attacking depth, and away form make them heavy favorites against a Bulgaria side struggling defensively at home. I predict a 3-0 win for Spain, with Morata and Lamine Yamal likely scoring, while David Raya keeps a clean sheet. Spain’s win probability is around 81%, reflecting their dominance and Bulgaria’s winless run in their last four competitive home games. Expect Spain to control possession (around 65%) and corners (9-11 projected), with Bulgaria’s counters through Despodov their main threat. The game should see Spain’s midfield, led by Pedri, overwhelm Bulgaria’s five-man defense, building on their 7-0 rout of Portugal in a prior qualifier.
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