13th Nov. FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA)---Moldova VS Italy Prediction
FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA) - Moldova VS Italy
Match Time:14-11-2025 03:45 Friday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Team Reviews
Moldova are entering this UEFA World Cup 2026 Qualifier (Group I) Matchday 6 clash at Stadionul Zimbru, Chișinău, on November 13, 2025, in dire straits, sitting bottom of Group I with 0 points from 5 matches (0 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses). Their recent form is dismal, with five straight losses, including a 3-2 defeat to Estonia and a 5-0 thrashing by Norway. They've scored 2 goals and conceded 26, averaging 0.4 goals scored and 5.2 conceded per game. At home, Moldova have lost all 3 qualifiers, conceding 9 goals. Coach's 5-4-1 relies on Ion Nicolaescu's finishing (1 goal) and Vlad Răileanu's defensive leadership. No major injuries are reported, but the squad's morale is low after 8 straight defeats. Moldova will focus on defensive organization, hoping for a rare point against a superior Italy.
Italy are in a precarious position, sitting 2nd in Group I with 6 points from 3 matches (2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss), but 9 points behind leaders Norway. Their recent form includes a 2-0 win over Israel but a shocking 3-0 loss to Norway, their worst start to a World Cup campaign. They've scored 7 goals and conceded 4, averaging 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Away form is poor, with no wins in the last 3 road games. Coach Gennaro Gattuso's 3-5-2 relies on Mateo Retegui's finishing (2 goals) and Davide Frattesi's midfield energy. Destiny Udogie, Leonardo Spinazzola, Federico Gatti, and Moise Kean are out (injuries), but Federico Chiesa returns. Italy will aim to bounce back with a win, extending their 6 straight victories over Moldova to keep play-off hopes alive.
Head to Head
Italy have dominated, winning all 6 meetings with Moldova, scoring 17 goals and conceding 2, averaging 3.2 goals per game. Their most recent clash was a 2-0 Italy win in Reggio Emilia on June 9, 2025, with Retegui scoring both. In Chișinău, Italy won 3-1 in 2013 and 2-0 in 2009. Both teams scored in only 1 of 6, with Italy keeping 5 clean sheets. Italy's 2-0 Israel win and Moldova's 3-2 Estonia loss suggest another Italy rout, but Moldova's home draw against Poland in 2023 shows occasional resilience.
Prediction
Moldova's winless campaign (0-0-5, 26 conceded) and Italy's need for points to chase Norway make this a one-sided affair, despite Italy's Norway shock. Italy's attack (2.3 goals per game) should overwhelm Moldova's defense (5.2 conceded). I predict a 3-0 Italy win, with Retegui and Frattesi scoring, and Moldova unable to threaten. Italy's win probability is around 85%, reflecting their 2-0 Israel win and Moldova's 5-0 Norway loss. Expect Italy to control possession (around 65%) and corners (9-11), with Moldova limited to rare counters. The game will be comfortable for Italy, securing three points to stay in the play-off race.
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