7th Sep.FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA)---Poland VS Finland Prediction
FIFA World Cup qualification (UEFA) - Poland VS Finland
Match Time:08-09-2025 02:45 Monday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Team Reviews
Poland are entering this FIFA World Cup 2026 UEFA Qualifier Group G match at Silesian Stadium in Chorzów with a decent but inconsistent campaign, sitting third with six points from three matches (2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss). Their recent form shows two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, scoring four goals and conceding three, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. At home, Poland are strong, unbeaten in their last three competitive matches, with goalkeeper Łukasz Skorupski keeping one clean sheet. Coach Michał Probierz’s 4-2-3-1 relies on Robert Lewandowski’s finishing (one goal in qualifiers) and Piotr Zieliński’s creativity (76% pass accuracy). No major injuries are reported, so Poland will leverage their vocal home crowd to dominate possession and target Finland’s defense, aiming to climb the group standings.
Finland, leading Group G with seven points from four matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), are in solid form, having upset Poland 2-1 in Helsinki in June 2025. Their recent performance includes two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five, scoring five goals and conceding four, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. However, their away form is weaker, with no wins in their last three road games, including a 1-1 draw at North Macedonia. Coach Jacob Friis’s 4-2-3-1 depends on Joel Pohjanpalo’s finishing (two goals in qualifiers) and Oliver Antman’s creativity (one assist). No major injuries are noted, but Finland will need to stay compact and rely on counters to challenge Poland’s home strength.
Head to Head
Poland and Finland have met five times since 2008, with Poland winning three, Finland one, and one draw. Their most recent clash was Finland’s 2-1 victory in June 2025 in Helsinki, with Pohjanpalo (penalty) and Benjamin Källman scoring, while Jakub Kiwior replied for Poland. In Chorzów, Poland won their last two home games against Finland, including a 5-1 friendly rout in October 2020 (Robert Lewandowski hat-trick) and a 5-0 friendly in March 2016. Matches average 3.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of encounters, suggesting a potentially open game. Poland’s home dominance gives them a psychological edge, but Finland’s recent upset shows their capability to compete.
Prediction
Poland’s strong home form and historical edge at Silesian Stadium make them favorites, but Finland’s recent victory and group leadership keep this competitive. I predict a 2-1 win for Poland, with Lewandowski or Karol Świderski likely scoring, while Pohjanpalo could nick a goal for Finland on a counter. Poland’s win probability is around 66%, reflecting their home strength and Finland’s winless away run in qualifiers. Expect Poland to edge possession (around 54%) and corners (7-9 projected), with Finland’s counters testing Skorupski’s goal. The game should see Poland’s midfield, led by Zieliński, exploit Finland’s flanks, building on their 5-1 home win in 2020, for a narrow victory.
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