Real Madrid Maintain Strong Record in Mbappé’s Absence

As Real Madrid prepares for the Spanish Super Cup semi-final against Atlético Madrid on January 7, 2026, statistical analysis from Opta suggests the team remains highly resilient despite the absence of Kylian Mbappé. The French superstar was excluded from the matchday squad due to a persistent muscle injury. While his individual talent is undeniable, historical data indicates that Carlo Ancelotti’s side has consistently found ways to secure results without their primary attacking focal point over the last two seasons.

According to the data, since the start of last season, Real Madrid has lost only one of the 11 matches played without Mbappé. Their record in his absence stands at an impressive 7 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, resulting in a remarkably low loss probability of just 9.1%. This suggests that the "merengue" squad often adopts a more balanced or defensively solid tactical approach when forced to rotate, successfully mitigating the loss of the forward's explosive goal-scoring threat.

In contrast, the statistics with Mbappé in the lineup tell a different story. In the 83 matches he has featured in, Real Madrid has recorded 57 wins, 8 draws, and 18 losses, pushing the loss probability up to 21.7%. While this discrepancy may be attributed to Mbappé playing in higher-stakes fixtures against tougher opposition, the figures provide confidence for fans ahead of the Madrid Derby. With Gonzalo García and Vinícius Júnior expected to lead the line, the team aims to prove once again that their collective structure can overcome individual absences.

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