18th Nov. AFC Asian Cup---Sri Lanka VS Thailand Prediction
AFC Asian Cup - Sri Lanka VS Thailand
Match Time:18-11-2025 18:15 Tuesday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Team Reviews
Sri Lanka are entering this AFC Asian Cup Saudi Arabia 2027™ Qualifiers Final Round (Third Round, Group G) Matchday 3 clash at Colombo Racecourse Stadium on October 11, 2025, as heavy underdogs, sitting 4th in Group G with 0 points from two matches (0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses). Their recent form is dismal, with a 4-0 loss to Thailand in the first leg and a 3-0 defeat to Singapore, scoring 0 goals and conceding 7, averaging 0 goals scored and 3.5 conceded per game. At home, Sri Lanka have lost their last three competitive matches, with goalkeeper keeping no clean sheets. Coach's 4-5-1 relies on a defensive setup and occasional counters from Dilan Samaraweera. No major injuries are reported, but the squad's lack of experience (FIFA rank 204th) is a concern. Sri Lanka will focus on organization to limit damage against Thailand, aiming for a morale-boosting result in front of a passionate home crowd.
Thailand are in commanding form, leading Group G with 6 points from two matches (2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses). Their recent form includes a 4-0 thrashing of Sri Lanka in the first leg and a 3-1 win over Singapore, scoring 7 goals and conceding 1, averaging 3.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game. Away form is strong, with two wins in two qualifiers. Coach's 4-3-3 depends on Supachok Sarachat's finishing (2 goals) and Ekanit Panya's creativity (1 assist). No major injuries are noted. Thailand, ranked 99th, will dominate possession and exploit Sri Lanka's defense, targeting a third straight win to secure group leadership.
Head to Head
Thailand dominate the historical record, winning all 5 meetings with Sri Lanka since 2004, including a 4-0 away win in the first leg on October 8, 2025, where Supachok scored twice. Matches average 3.2 goals, with Sri Lanka failing to score in 80% of encounters. Thailand's 4-0 first-leg win gives them a massive psychological edge, making a repeat likely in Colombo.
Prediction
Thailand's perfect start (6 goals in 2 games) and historical dominance (5 wins, 16-0 aggregate) make them overwhelming favorites against Sri Lanka's winless campaign and porous defense (3.5 conceded per game). Sri Lanka's home support could inspire, but their lack of goals (0 in 2 games) limits threat. I predict a 3-0 Thailand win, with Supachok and Panya scoring, and Sri Lanka unable to respond. Thailand's win probability is around 85%, reflecting their 4-0 first-leg win and Sri Lanka's 3-0 Singapore loss. Expect Thailand to control possession (around 65%) and corners (9-11), with Sri Lanka's counters ineffective. The game will be one-sided, with Thailand securing three points to clinch Group G.
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