3rd Sep. AFC U23 Asian Cup---Thailand U23 VS Mongolia U23 Prediction
AFC U23 Asian Cup - Thailand U23 VS Mongolia U23
Match Time:03-09-2025 20:30 Wednesday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Team Reviews
Thailand U23 are entering this AFC U23 Asian Cup Qualifier Group I match at a neutral venue in Thailand with confidence, aiming to secure a spot in the 2026 finals. Their recent form is decent, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, scoring seven goals and conceding four, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. In the 2025 ASEAN U-23 Championship, they reached the semi-finals, beating Philippines U23 3-1 but losing 1-0 to Vietnam. Playing at home, Thailand are strong, unbeaten in their last four competitive matches on Thai soil, with goalkeeper Soponwit Rakyart keeping two clean sheets. Coach Issara Sritaro’s 4-2-3-1 relies on Jaroensak Wonggorn’s pace (three goals in 2024 qualifiers) and Purachet Thodsanid’s midfield creativity. No major injuries are reported, so Thailand will look to dominate possession and exploit Mongolia’s defense with their attacking flair.
Mongolia U23 are massive underdogs, struggling in regional competitions with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches, scoring three goals and conceding nine, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Their away form is dire, with no wins in their last five road games, including a 4-0 loss to Malaysia U23 in 2023 qualifiers. Coach Ichiro Otsuka’s 4-4-2 setup lacks firepower, with limited attacking options and a defense prone to errors. No major injuries are noted, but Mongolia will rely on Temuulen Zorigt’s midfield work to disrupt Thailand’s rhythm. Facing a higher-ranked side like Thailand, Mongolia will aim to stay compact and counter, but their lack of quality makes this a daunting task.
Head to Head
Thailand U23 and Mongolia U23 have met once recently, in the 2022 AFC U-23 Asian Cup qualifiers, where Thailand played out a 1-1 draw in Mongolia, a surprising result given the gap in quality, per. No further competitive encounters are recorded, making this a relatively fresh matchup. That draw saw Thailand dominate possession (62%) but fail to convert chances, while Mongolia scored from a rare counter. Matches involving Mongolia average 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of their recent games against stronger opponents. Thailand’s superior form and home advantage give them a clear edge, but Mongolia’s resilience in that 2021 draw suggests they can frustrate.
Prediction
Thailand U23’s strong home form, attacking depth, and experience in qualifiers make them heavy favorites against a Mongolia side with a poor away record and defensive issues. I predict a 3-0 win for Thailand, with Wonggorn or Thodsanid likely to score, while Rakyart keeps a clean sheet. Thailand’s win probability is around 70%, reflecting their dominance and Mongolia’s struggles (18% win rate away). Expect Thailand to control possession (around 60%) and rack up corners (10-12 projected), with Mongolia’s counters posing minimal threat. The game should see Thailand’s wingers exploit Mongolia’s flanks, building on their 5-0 rout of Bahrain U23 in 2020.
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