21st Aug. UEFA Conference League - Rosenborg BK VS FSV Mainz 05 Prediction
UEFA Conference League - Rosenborg BK VS FSV Mainz 05
Match Time:22-08-2025 00:00 Friday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Rosenborg BK
Rosenborg, coached by Alfred Johansson, advanced past Hammarby IF with a 1-0 aggregate win (0-0 home, 1-0 away, Dino Islamovic 59’) in the third qualifying round on August 14, 2025. Their recent form includes three wins, one draw, and one loss in five competitive matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. They lost 4-1 to KFUM Oslo in the Eliteserien on August 3, 2025. Key players include Islamovic (1 goal vs Hammarby), Emil Frederiksen, and Noah Sahsah, with a probable 4-3-3 lineup: Tangvik; Reitan, Jenssen, Henriksen, Pereira; Tagseth, Selnæs, Frederiksen; Broholm, Islamovic, Sahsah. Strengths include their defensive solidity (4 clean sheets in 5 games) and home atmosphere, but injuries to Noah Sahsah (knee, doubtful) and Maxim Dal (cruciate ligament) and a recent dip in scoring (2 goals in 3 games) are concerns. They aim to take a lead into the second leg in Mainz on August 28, 2025.
1. FSV Mainz 05
Mainz, led by Bo Henriksen, enters directly as Bundesliga’s 6th-placed team from 2024/25. Their recent form shows three wins, one draw, and one loss in five matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, including a 1-0 DFB-Pokal win over Dynamo Dresden (Nadiem Amiri 17’) on August 18, 2025, and a 0-0 friendly draw with RC Strasbourg. Key players include Amiri (1 goal), Jonathan Burkardt, and Dominik Kohr, with a probable 3-4-2-1 lineup: Zentner; Hanche-Olsen, Bell, Kohr; Caci, Amiri, Sano, Jenz; Lee, Burkardt; Nebel. Strengths include their Bundesliga pedigree and defensive organization, but a lack of attacking consistency (no goals in 2 of 5 games) and away form (3 losses in last 5 away) are issues. They aim to secure a result in Norway to set up a favorable second leg at MEWA Arena.
Head-to-Head
This is the first competitive meeting between Rosenborg and Mainz. No historical data exists, but Rosenborg’s European experience (4-0 aggregate win over FK Banga in second round) contrasts with Mainz’s return to UEFA competitions after a nine-year absence (last in 2016/17 Europa League). Comparable matches against similar opposition suggest an average of 2.5 goals, with 50% both teams scoring (BTTS) and 50% over 2.5 goals.
Predicted Score: Rosenborg BK 1-1 1. FSV Mainz 05
Rosenborg’s Islamovic and Frederiksen face Mainz’s Amiri and Burkardt, with Rosenborg’s home strength and defensive record tested by Mainz’s Bundesliga quality and counter-attacking threat. Mainz are slight favorites (2.04 odds, 49% win probability) over Rosenborg (3.80), with a draw at 3.75. Trends (Rosenborg: 60% under 2.5 goals; Mainz: 60% BTTS in last 5) suggest a tight game, with betting tips favoring double chance X2 (Mainz or draw, 1.30) and under 2.5 goals (1.85). Cards may be issued in the 16°C evening, with Rosenborg’s 10 fouls and Mainz’s 11 per game suggesting 3-4 cards. Rosenborg aim to leverage their home form, while Mainz seek to avoid an upset. The winner advances to the Conference League league phase; the loser is eliminated. Rosenborg may score through Islamovic, with Burkardt likely netting for Mainz. Rosenborg’s defensive solidity balances Mainz’s quality, leading to a draw that keeps the tie open for the second leg, aligning with both teams’ cautious recent performances.
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