20th Aug. UEFA Champions League - Fenerbahce VS Benfica Prediction
UEFA Champions League - Fenerbahce VS Benfica
Match Time:21-08-2025 03:00 Thursday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Fenerbahçe SK
Fenerbahçe, coached by José Mourinho, advanced past Feyenoord with a 6-4 aggregate win (2-1 loss, 5-2 win) in the third qualifying round on August 12, 2025. Their recent form includes three wins, one draw, and one loss in five competitive matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. A 0-0 draw against Göztepe in the Turkish Süper Lig followed their Feyenoord victory. Key players include Jhon Durán (1 goal, 1 assist vs Feyenoord), Sofyan Amrabat, and Youssef En-Nesyri, with a probable 3-4-2-1 lineup: Eğribayat; Oosterwolde, Škriniar, Müldür; Semedo, Fred, Amrabat, Brown; Szymański, En-Nesyri; Durán. Strengths include their attacking depth (5 goals in home leg vs Feyenoord) and home form (unbeaten in last 5 home games), but Rodrigo Becão’s absence (injury) and defensive lapses (conceded in 4 of 5 games) are concerns. They aim to secure a first-leg lead, targeting their first UCL group stage since 2008/09.
SL Benfica
Benfica, led by Bruno Lage, progressed past Nice with a 4-0 aggregate win (2-0, 2-0) in the third qualifying round on August 12, 2025. Their recent form is perfect, with five wins in five competitive matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.0 conceded, including a 1-0 Portuguese Super Cup win over Sporting and a 1-0 league win at Estrela Amadora. Key players include Vangelis Pavlidis (1 goal vs Nice), Franjo Ivanović, and Richard Ríos, with a probable 4-4-2 lineup: Trubin; Dedić, Silva, Otamendi, Dahl; Aursnes, Ríos, Barrenechea, Schjelderup; Pavlidis, Ivanović. Strengths include their defensive solidity (5 clean sheets) and tactical discipline, but Ángel Di María’s departure and doubts over Elias Achouri (hamstring) are issues. They aim to maintain their perfect start and take a result back to Lisbon for the second leg on August 27, 2025.
Head-to-Head
Fenerbahçe and Benfica have met five times in UEFA competitions. Benfica won all three two-legged ties: 7-1 aggregate in the 1975/76 European Cup, 3-2 in the 2012/13 Europa League semi-finals, and 2-1 in the 2018/19 UCL third qualifying round. Fenerbahçe are unbeaten at home against Benfica (2 wins, 1 draw), including a 1-0 win in 2013. Matches average 2.6 goals, with 60% over 2.5 goals and 40% both teams scoring (BTTS). A recent 3-2 Benfica win in the 2025 Eusébio Cup friendly saw both teams score.
Predicted Score: Fenerbahçe SK 1-1 SL Benfica
Fenerbahçe’s Durán and En-Nesyri face Benfica’s Pavlidis and Ivanović, with Fenerbahçe’s home strength and Mourinho’s tactics tested by Benfica’s defensive resilience and counter-attacking threat. Benfica are slight favorites (2.50 odds, 40% win probability) over Fenerbahçe (2.80), with a draw at 3.20. Trends (Fenerbahçe: 80% over 2.5 goals; Benfica: 60% under 2.5 goals) and H2H suggest a competitive game, with betting tips favoring BTTS (1.75) and over 2.5 goals (1.90). Cards may be issued in the 24°C evening, with Fenerbahçe’s 12 fouls and Benfica’s 10 per game suggesting 4-5 cards. Fenerbahçe aim to capitalize on their home record, while Benfica seek to maintain their clean-sheet streak. The winner advances to the UCL league phase; the loser enters the Europa League. Fenerbahçe may score through Durán, with Pavlidis likely netting for Benfica. Fenerbahçe’s home form balances Benfica’s defensive solidity, leading to a draw that keeps the tie open for the second leg, reflecting their competitive H2H and recent friendly.
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